Fu Mengzi, deputy director of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of State Security, published an article in early September pointing out “the trend of East rise West fall has slowed down, and the current status of West strong and weak East is unlikely to change completely in the short term.” Analysts, from the Russia-Ukraine war, say that the CCP has seen the perseverance and solidarity of the West in defending democracy, and it realized that the statement “East rise West fall” is a mistake.
According to The Vision Times, in his article on September 6, Fu mentioned that the Russian economy could shrink further in the next two years, and China’s economic growth will also slow down. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused recessions in a number of countries, and the global power model has gradually changed. However, the West, which accounts for more than half of the world’s GDP, has been able to maintain its dominant position in the global economy for some time. Therefore, he pointed out that “the pattern of international power has not changed, but the trend of East rise West fall has slowed down, and the current status of West strong and weak East is unlikely to change completely in the short term.”
Ding Shufan, an emeritus professor at Taiwan Political University, told RFA that he thinks that the CCP is reviewing its actions following the U.S. embargo, hoping to first defuse and reassess the situation. Fu’s post may be the conclusion drawn by the members of the CCP Central Party School. And Fu can put it that way, which means that there are different critical voices within the CCP.
Wu Qiang, an independent political scholar in Beijing, believes that China’s future security strategy should shift to self-reliance, cutting and adjusting the semi-alliance relationship ”unlimited” with Russia. This adjustment can really be seen as a windfall for China’s foreign and security policy.”
Ngo Cuong said that the Russia-Ukraine war has shown the CCP that the Western world led by the United States has demonstrated its unprecedented mobilization capacity after the Cold War, its solidarity, and technological strength. The Western world, also has the ability to control finances and grasp world order, and in the short term it is unchangeable or insurmountable.
He also added, “Because of the organization of the 20th National Party Congress and the strategic plan for Xi’s next five-year term or longer, Beijing will seek to make peace with the Western world.This is an important guide for the future of U.S.-China relations and of China with the world.”
As early as August 2019, when the pandemic ravaged the world, the CCP’s media published an article saying that the world’s geo-economic and political focus was “East rise West fall” “East and West contradiction”, and the so-called Strong West, weak East, West dominates, East follows in the past has turned into “Equal East West.” Today, it can be said that there has been a great change that has never been seen in the past 500 years.
Xi has also repeatedly mentioned the “East rises West fall.” According to Vision Times, in January 2021, in a speech to cadres at the CCP Central Party School, he stated that “a great change can not be seen in a century must be recognized, and the trend is in general is ‘East rises West fall’… firmly grasp the strategic initiative.”