Taiwan’s top intelligence agency reveals that China will not invade Taiwan within the next 2 to 3 years, or during the term of current Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen.

Chen Ming-tong, Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, shares his view on the security status around Taiwan Strait – the sea area dividing Taiwan and mainland China.

In a speech at Legislative Yuan, or Taiwan’s legislature, Chen said that Russia’s war in Ukraine has made Beijing more cautious about launching a war against Taiwan. Taiwan has also learned to improve its defense since.

He said that the U.S. has almost exhausted all measures to help Ukraine fight back. And the only exception is that it has not sent troops directly to the war.

The intelligence boss noted that the U.S. and Ukraine do not have such a thing as the Ukraine Relations Act. So they can not directly intervene to that extent. On the other hand, the U.S. and Taiwan have a long-standing Taiwan Relations Act. So the U.S. can directly send forces to the front line.

Chen Mingtong also said that from the strategic viewpoint, in the next one, two, or three years, that is, during the term of President Tsai Ing-wen, there will be no problems on the Taiwan Strait. And Beijing will not attack Taiwan.

CIA Director William Burns also made the same statement in a recent interview with Financial Times.

The U.S. intelligence chief believes that Beijing is “unsettled” by the war development in Ukraine. He does not think China will give up the reunification by force. But he also feels that China will carefully study the war in Ukraine to draw lessons for future actions against Taiwan.

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