Recent signals have demonstrated Beijing’s uncertainties both internally and externally.
According to Da Ji Yuan News’ report, several experts have analyzed Beijing’s current situation. They believe that as the sole and leading Party of China, The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) currently gets nowhere, and it could lose its power at anytime.
The economy is on the verge of collapse
The CCP’s epidemic-control measures, particularly the large-scale lockdown, have significantly impacted the economy.
According to Da Ji Yuan News, the mainland’s main economic figures fell across the board in April. Meanwhile, the consumption figures in May continued the downtrend for the third consecutive month.
The Ministry of Finance reported on June 28 a decrease in the economic performance of all state-owned and state-controlled enterprises in China from January to May 2022. In detail, the total profit reached only around $243 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics report, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises have earned a total profit of around $117 billion, down 16.1%. Meanwhile, private enterprises made a total profit of about $150 million, a decrease of 2.2%.
At the same time, the local government’s fiscal revenue in mainland China continues to decline.
According to a China Business News report on 17 provinces’ fiscal revenue in the five first months of this year, the figures of 14 provinces have declined to various degrees. Jilin’s figure fell by more than 44.2%, while Shanghai’s figure dropped by 16.8%.
According to Dr. Feng Chongyi, an Associate Professor in China Studies, University of Technology, Sydney, from an economic perspective, the CCP has “reached the point where it has to die.”
Does Beijing succeed in poverty alleviation or just a lie of prosperity?
According to Chinese mouthpiece outlets’ declaration in November 2020, all 832 national-level poverty-stricken counties had “got out of” poverty.
In other words, China has accomplished the national goal of alleviating poverty.
Chinese media has hailed it as a tremendous success for the leadership of the CCP.
At the same time, it states that such a success would be impossible without the “institutional advantage” of the Chinese party-state political system.
However, according to The Diplomat, the CCP regime has failed to address the root cause of rural poverty.
Many Chinese, who the regime claims have benefited from its poverty alleviation policy, also say the reality is not what Beijing claims it to be.
Many suggest that the CCP’s poverty exit rate statistics may be overstated.
Prime Minister Li Keqiang, in August 2021, revealed information that contradicts the CCP’s media propaganda.
Li said during a press conference that “there are still some 600 million people whose monthly income is barely $149. It’s not even enough to rent a room in mid-sized Chinese cities.”
Li Kongyue, a professor at the School of Management of Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou Province, revealed that as many as 940 million people in China earn less than $300 a month. In addition, more than 800 million are in debt, and more than 200 million are unemployed.
The unemployment rate repeatedly sets new records, surpassing the U.S. and Europe’s figures
China’s National Bureau of Statistics report on June 15 shows that youth unemployment has hit another record.
The unemployment rate among 16-24-year-olds has risen to 18.4 percent, exceeding the previous 18.2 percent in April and setting a new record.
According to China Caixin.com, Lu Feng, an economics professor at the National School of Development of Peking University, said on May 18 that the youth unemployment rate in China surpassed that of Europe and the United States in April.
While youth unemployment in the United States and Europe has been declining since mid-2021, it has increased in China since October 2021.
Lu Feng said he was surprised to see the youth unemployment rate in Europe and some new economies reaching 20% a few years ago but never imagined that China could reach this level.
China’s several provinces have been undergoing a wave of salary cuts up to 20-30%
According to Caixin’s report on June 30, many civil servants along the eastern coast of China have experienced a wave of salary cuts from 20 to 30%. Besides, various self-imposed incentive subsidies have been canceled. The article was quickly deleted.
Some scholars have analyzed that the wave of salary cuts for civil servants in many places is mainly due to the recent decline in local fiscal revenue.
Taking Zhejiang as an example, before the epidemic began, the general public budget revenue of Zhejiang Province maintained a growth rate of about 10% for three consecutive years. However, in 2020, its growth rate plummeted to 2.83%.
The local authority’s fiscal revenue announced in April has fallen sharply. Shenzhen fell by 44% year on year, Suzhou fell by 49.6%, and many cities fell by more than 30%.
Beijing takes control of Hong Kong but can hardly manage the territory
Lin Song, a senior Australian media person and a Dr. of political science, referred to Xi Jinping’s trip to Hong Kong to comment on the current Hong Kong situation.
Xi did not spend the night in Hong Kong on June 30. Then, he had to take the train to Hong Kong again on the morning of July 01.
Lin said this strange incident has never occurred, reflecting that the CCP is not sure about Xi’s safety in Hong Kong.
In addition, the five-star and Hong Kong regional flags were smeared or removed in many places, although no anti-communist parade has broken out this year.
According to Lin, Hong Kong residents are not those who hung up these red flags. Instead, pro-Beijing associations hung the flags on residential houses. Hong Kong residents were very disgusted. Then, these flags ended up being graffitied and put away.
Lin added that the CCP is trying to use dictatorial measures to suppress Hong Kong residents and take complete control of everything. However, this act only makes Hong Kong residents and even people outside Hong Kong’s border more dissatisfied.
He concluded that the crisis that the CCP faces is getting increasingly severe. Consequently, it will fall at any time.
China fails to maintain relations with the US and EU
On June 29, NATO leaders mentioned the challenges brought by the CCP for the first time in its 8th edition of the “Strategic Concept” at the Madrid summit in Spain.
The document named China nine times, pointing out the CCP’s ambition and its policies of coercion. It further addressed the systemic challenges that the CCP has brought to Euro-Atlantic security.
At the press conference, the NATO Secretary-General even bluntly stated that the CCP poses a severe threat to Taiwan and other neighbors.
Previously, China was mentioned 14 times in the G7 joint communiqué of the three-day Group of Seven (G7) summit on June 28.
With harsh language, the communiqué showed that the G7 and Beijing shared utterly different views on several issues, including the South China Sea issue, the suppression of democracy and freedom in Hong Kong, and condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, etc.
The G7 also launched the “Global Infrastructure Partnership” meeting and invited the BRICS members, including India and South Africa’s leaders, to participate. The conference aims to form a circle of attack against the CCP.
The China-EU and China-US relations deteriorated after Beijing rejected condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the contrary, the regime even explicitly supported it.
On June 28, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on five Chinese companies suspected of supporting Russia’s military and defense industrial base.
According to Lin Song, the international community has recently realized the true nature of the CCP through several incidents.
These include the initial Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, the suppression of Hong Kong, and its stand toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, Feng Chongyi supposed that although the totalitarian regime could kill and suppress people to take control of its nationals, Beijing would fail to control the economy’s development and foreign relations.
He said that if Beijing keeps applying strict measures on these two aspects, the regime would only offend more people and be isolated and abandoned by the international community.
In other words, Beijing’s uncompromising approach to diplomacy and economy does not work. On the contrary, it shows the origin of its internal and external difficulties that are bringing China to the verge of collapse.