Taiwan has become the “crown jewel” for Western allies, which they are ready to defend at all costs against the growing aggression of the Chinese Communist Party. 

All the values that are enshrined in the island’s inhabitants, who cultivate the essence of classical Chinese culture, and the essence of Western democracy, are worthy of being preserved by everyone. 

That is why the constant and growing threats by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to appropriate this democratic island, are analyzed in detail by international experts, in order to determine their potential risk. 

The exercises carried out by the Chinese regime during the last two months have attracted the attention of analysts. 

In the invasion drill at the end of August, the CCP used civilian ferries to transport high-tech military equipment, simulating an amphibious attack to seize Taiwan.

The communist regime’s navy led a squad of amphibious assault tanks to a Chinese beach near the Taiwan Strait. From there, they dived into the sea and climbed onto waiting civilian ferries using special ramps. 

They then returned to their point of origin, according to observations provided by satellite imagery from August 31, reviewed by the U.S. Naval Institute (USNI), an independent organization.

At least seven of these civilian, dual-purpose car ferries and their movements were tracked by defense analyst Tom Shugart, who oversees military maneuvers for the CCP military. 

Shugart said, “They ended up parked off the coast in areas that were near other areas where we’ve seen them do amphibious assault training before with commercial ferries.” 

Several Chinese army and navy vessels were also present at the drill. 

Would the possible amphibious invasion of Taiwan be successful?

In the face of CCP drills to seize Taiwan following an amphibious invasion, former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, Carl Schuster, said, “It won’t work.”

Schuster analyzes several aspects of the Chinese regime’s military tactics. In one, he foresees the risk of its soldiers being shot by attacks from submarines. 

Also, he notes, “For an amphibious landing to succeed, you have to have air dominance and maritime dominance.” He added that CCP fighters “will have to overcome the minefield in the water and on the beach that the people of Taiwan are committed to defending.”

Moreover, he estimates that the the communist regime doesn’t want a long war but a quick victory. Schuster also pointed out that are few landing beaches on the entire island.

But he views the CCP’s previous excessive incursions into Taiwan’s air zone as an attempt to destroy its political will and undermine its sense of security by forcing it to accept occupation without having to invade using an amphibious landing. 

He also likens this strategy to that of the failed attempts by the Germans, who sought to intimidate Britain with their repeated attacks, during World War II.

Another less promising drill

Despite the unpromising prospects of the CCP’s mock military invasion, a few days ago there were other military sea maneuvers that seem even less viable.

In this case, Chinese soldiers were observed riding small motorized personal watercraft, jet surfing, and landing on a beach, after abandoning the crafts they advanced at full speed, rifles in hand.

This drill was featured in the video attached to one of the posts by Twitter user, @louischeung_hk, on September 26. 

The original video was featured by China Youth Daily as a demonstration of new equipment for individual amphibious operations, according to NTDTV. 

These nonthreatening devices, more for sport than war, generated a lot of negative comments from tweeters. Comments ranged from the practical to the mocking.

Netizen @zenknight85 wrote, “Taiwan strait home to the worlds most dangerous sharks: tiger sharks, great bull sharks, and great whites are all salivating right now, looking forward to their arrival.”

Likewise, the user, @SomniNaut, noted that the scenes were taken in very calm, duck pond-like waters, and that he would like to see the performance in rough water. 

Evaluating the system, netizen, @mitsucolt5566, opined, “Not a good idea, as both hands are needed to hold the board.”

He added: “The backpack can hv armor plate and place in front to protect the diver, and rear with multiple LED that are linked to electronic compass so he does not need to see where to head to and it should move a lot more faster.”

The current situation on the invasion 

The current situation does not appear to have escalated in terms of the level of risk of invasion threatening Taiwan, by the CCP.

Rather, based on these two drills, there appears to be a clear deterioration, or perhaps a disinterest in the strategy based on the use of military force.

It is true that international support has poured into Taiwan, either because of the industrial importance it represents for the world; or because of the valuable preservation of the treasures of classical Chinese culture; or because of the democratic principles that guide its government. 

These significant shows of support may have deterred the CCP from executing its violent invasion plans.

No less decisive is what the island’s inhabitants think. According to the views of some of the Taiwanese fishermen, published by BBC, in August, they do not believe they will be attacked.

One fisherman said, “They are a bunch of gangsters.” Another added, “Those communists talk a lot, but they won’t do anything. We have been living with their threats for 70 years.”

The perception of these fishermen corroborates the growing loss of identity with mainland China. In an article this month, from DW, Taiwanese identity had declined substantially over the past 20 years, reaching only 20%.

On the other hand, without overlooking the extreme tension in the CCP as the 20th National Congress approaches in just over a week, the Pentagon’s assessment is not alarming. 

The U.S. Department of Defense, as of August, had not changed its view that the Chinese regime was not prepared to invade Taiwan in a five-year period, Japan Times reported.

Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, set an important precedent with her visit to the island in August. Some of her words sum up the sentiments of many international leaders. 

On that occasion, Pelosi said, “America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.”

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